By Umesh Agarwal
The Zero Covid Policy implemented by Xi Jinping is a cover up exercise to wrap the larger malaise facing the Chinese Financial system of an impending debt crisis which made headlines in October 2021. Remember the crisis is not over and the debt bonds are maturing in 2023 as well. The crisis is just not limited to Evergrande but to the entire sector as well. Chinese home buyers have refused to service debts. The banks have been instructed to support developers and easing the terms of payment. It seems all these measures are not going to work out.
The CCP elected Xi Jingping who in his quest to become the Iconic figure of China destroyed the Chinese Tech Sector by forcing Alibaba to abandon its IPO plans. The meltdown of tech stocks has caused $1.5 Trillion USD in Market Capitalization loss.
China has lent around $1.4 Trillion Dollars to 40 Countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America under BRI Initiative. Chances are these loans going bad in the decade will put further strains on Chinese Financial System.
The buildup in the South China Sea and Himalayas for claiming contested Islands and Lands does not augur well for Investors who were looking to remain in China. The flight of industries to alternative and additional supply chain locations point out saturation point for Investors.
Next is Debt to GDP ratio which according to sources is 300% of GDP. And China has borrowed heavily from the Multilateral Institutions at concessional rates to fund its global predatory funding under BRI.
The Internal Civil dissent against Xi Administration for implementing zero Covid policy and the side-lined CCP factions will create more problems in the days to come for Xi Administration.
After the Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan a host of European Parliamentarians have started on pilgrimage visit to the Island country. This has raised tensions and calls for increased military posturing. The tensions escalated will cause accelerated Balkanization of China probably causing emergence of East Turkestan, Tibet, Hong Kong, Manchuria & Many others. Just wait for more protest and watch the collapse of CCP administered country like a pack of cards.