David Vance SubstackRead More
If you follow me over on X, you will know that I am a vociferous critic of ANY talks with the current Tehran regime. Like most Iranians, I don’t see the point of such. What is there to negotiate? The current Iranian regime will NOT abandon its nuclear dreams, but it can play for time. That is exactly what is unfolding in front of our very eyes!
You see Iran’s leadership is treating the current war as a long, grinding contest of endurance, betting that it can simply outlast Trump’s political will and time in office. Facing a far stronger US‑Israeli military coalition, Tehran knows it cannot “win” conventionally, so it is trying to tretch the timeline and deny Trump the quick, decisive victory he promised.
We have seen how Iran has expanded and fragmented the battlefield—using proxies across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and the Gulf, threatening Gulf energy infrastructure, and partially closing the Strait of Hormuz—to turn a short “punitive” campaign into a wider regional crisis. Every extra week of conflict increases pressure on oil prices, global shipping and allied governments, which Tehran hopes will translate into political pressure on Trump from Europe, Asian importers and US domestic opinion.
At the pointless negotiating table, Iran has repeatedly raised its demands as the war has dragged on, tabling a 10‑point plan that reportedly keeps its right to enrich uranium and seeking sanctions relief without fundamental regime change. It’s fundamental regime change that is needed but those in charge want to stop that from happening. Their approach aims to turn Trump’s own shifting “deadlines” against him: each time he blinks or extends an ultimatum, Tehran reads it as confirmation that time is on its side.
Trump is allowing the Iranians to play asymmetric warfare: for Iran’s current rulers this conflict is existential, while for Trump it is one issue among many in a Mid Terms narrative. By absorbing punishment, avoiding outright collapse and waiting out the blockade, the regime hopes to emerge battered but intact—having proved it could survive both US firepower and Trump’s political cycle.
This is not to say that they will get their way. The initial US-Israeli military strikes caused massive damage. The Ayatollah was killed on day one. His successor, his son, is in a coma. The economic sanctions of the Blockade is crippling the Regime but here’s the kicker – those in charge could not care less about the ordinary suffering Iranian people. So even as the economy is stranded, the leadership clings on. Yes Kharg Island will overflow with oil that cannot be processed further but that is an inconvenience the Regime will accept to stay in place.
I favour targeted assassinations of ALL those in charge. I favour further destruction of the IRGC and Basiji. I favour arming the Iranian people. I favour Trump engaging with the son of the late Shah, Reza Pahlavi. Only FULL and COMPLETE Regme change will work, in the meantime Trump and his team are talking in the dark.
