David Vance SubstackRead More
We now know that the Makerfield Parliamentary by election will be on June 18th. Fans of history will recognise that date because it was on that day in history when Napoleon met his fate at Waterloo!
It is entirely possible that Andy Burnham will meet the same fate on that date!
Reform go into this by‑election as the most likely winners because the political weather in the seat has changed so much these past few years and it is so much more than a simple “Labour hold with a big name” narrative.
Start with the numbers. I love data because it reveal so much!
At the 2024 general election Labour beat Reform by 45.2% to 31.8%, a majority of about 5,400 votes. Now on those figures you would call it a comfortable, if not landslide, Labour seat.
But the 2026 Wigan local elections, fought on practically the same geography, turned that picture upside down. Reform won 24 of the 25 council seats contested in the borough, taking every ward inside the Makerfield boundaries and leaving Labour without a single win on the night.
Estimate for the constituency put Reform on just under 50% and Labour below 27%, an eye‑watering 23‑point Reform lead and an 18‑point swing since 2024. That is momentous regardless how the BBC try to spin it. This is Reform country now. Just look at this!
They often say “follow the money” and PollCheck’s constituency model, blending the 2024 result with the 2026 local data and demographics, gives Reform roughly a two‑thirds chance of taking the seat. Other projection markets are even more bullish, with one putting Reform’s win probability above 80% before candidates were even named. So whilst those in the salons of the mainstream media sagely suggest Burnham will win it, the facts on the ground are a bit different!
The local voting pattern matters as much as the headline share. Reform’s vote is not just broad, it is deep: they topped the poll in classic Labour heartland wards like Winstanley and Worsley Mesnes, where they cleared 50% and pushed Labour into the mid‑20s. The Conservatives are barely in the game, stuck in single digits, which means there is no obvious “Tory squeeze” to rescue Labour.
Of course Andy Burnham’s individual appeal here is the one big unknown, but that cuts both ways. His personal vote as Greater Manchester mayor is strong, yet even Prof John Curtice has warned that in Makerfield Labour would have “less than a 5% chance” without him! If he can win here, it will be a huge boost for Labour. However if he loses, I think it will plunge Labour into an even deeper crisis that can only be resolved through an early general election!
The Battle of Waterloo brought a decisive END to Napoleon’s ambitions. On June 18th in Makerfield, the same fate may well happen to Andy Burnham!
