David Vance SubstackRead More
I see a lot of commentary from those who should know better suggesting that Sir Keir Starmer might resign any day now. I think this misunderstands the psyche of the adenoidal knight, he whose entire purpose is to simply BE Prime Minister. Of course I could be wrong but I think Starmer will have be to levered out of Downing Street using a crow bar.
That is not to underestimate the crisis that now engulfs him and which is fundamentally all brought about by his horrendous judgement. Starmer won power on a campaign designed by his political guru Morgan McSweeney to present him as a “moderate” who would “deliver” for the British people. It was all about efficiency and professionalism – virtues Starmer was able to present given his legal background. But judgement is key and he totally lacks it.
You might recall that Starmer has publicly expressed “total” or “full” confidence in several senior Labour figures facing controversy, including Angela Rayner, Peter Mandelson, Tulip Siddiq and Anneliese Dodds, reinforcing a broader pattern in which he insists backs an ally shortly before that person is forced out or steps down. That is a really bad look but a key insight into the man.
Starmer is clearly very focused on himself – narcissism is not uncommon a characteristic of politicians! However when you combine the narcissism with the calamitous judgement, you have a Prime Minister who will do everything and anything to remain in power. Starmer cannot see any circumstances in which he will voluntarily resign and so he will remain.
There’s a catch. A growing number of his own colleagues want him gone. They never really liked him, they thought he was too centrist, and now is the time for them to strike. And they will. It will be the timing of this that sees Starmer off.
In the next week or so will there be any further revelations regarding Mandelson, Starmer communications? If so, that could be the end. Assuming nothing else comes out, there is the Gorton and Denton Westminster by-election on the 26th of this month. If Labour lose, that may signal his replacement. If he still hangs on, the May elections should force him out.
Starmer doesn’t WANT to go but I believe he will be FORCED to go over the 16 weeks. There is no way back for him but the greater worry is that calibre of those who want to replace him.
