David Vance SubstackRead More
I was surprised when Restore Britain’s Rupert Lowe announced that his Party was putting up a candidate in the Makerfield by-election. I think it can reasonably be seen as high risk because it is entering a contest where the vote may already be fragmented. The seat is politically sensitive and the party is trying to establish itself against stronger, much better-known opponents.
Makerfield has traditionally been a Labour stronghold, but recent local momentum for Reform UK suggests the anti-Labour vote could be split in several directions, which makes the outcome especially unpredictable. And fun to watch!
The party’s own position also adds risk. Restore Britain is a new and relatively untested force, and while it says it wants to win thousands of votes, it has limited electoral history and little proven organisation at constituency level.
The way I see it there are a number of possible outcomes for Restore here.
Let’s look at each of them,
Restore Britain could poll well enough to become a serious challenger and build momentum for future elections. I think this would be unlikely but time will tell.
It could attract protest votes without overtaking Labour or Reform, which would still give visibility but no seat. This has to be it’s top desired outcome.
Its presence could divide the anti-Labour vote, indirectly helping Labour or another opponent win more comfortably. Restore seems remarkable relaxed about this given that it would expose them as Labour’s helpers. Saying “I don’t care” may not be sufficient.
If the campaign fails to land locally, the party will be dismissed as a marginal project rather than a genuine contender. This has to be their fear.
A surprise positive result would validate Lowe’s strategy, while a poor result could weaken claims that Restore Britain is a serious new force. If it overreaches, it could expose the gap between online enthusiasm and real-world support.
Restore is a vigorous force on-line and we are about to see how that translates in the real world. As Thomas Massie found in Kentucky the other day, it does not always work out
