David Vance SubstackRead More
With apologies to Shakespeare, but just a year after coming to power in an electoral landslide that delivered them 412 seats and that secured 33.7% of the national vote share, the UK is no longer in love with Labour.
Here is the newest opinion poll and it is a real shocker for the Starmer Government.
Labour sit humbled on 17%, the lowest recorded share of the vote in its history. It is only 1% ahead of the rabid loons in the Greens and on par with the dying Conservatives. Reform has increased its lead to 10% which is respectable.
Let’s think about how this would translate into actual seats!
Reform would win between 311–373 seats, enough for a majority government. Labour would bag between 90–144 seats, a drastic fall from the 412 won last year. The poor old Conservatives enter the extinction zone on between 24–45 seats. Interestingly the Greens despite their decent % share would still only win 6 –7 seats. Finally, the Liberal Democrats will come third on between 58–78 seats, making them a significant parliamentary power.
The really big change that we see is that Labour is collapsing as quickly as it arose. Labour won 203 seats in the 2019 UK general election, which was their lowest total since 1935. It seems likely they will do even LESS well in 2029!!! They will be the official opposition to Reform but on around a third of the MPs.
I think the thing that is most surprising to all of us is just how fast Labour’s fall has been and a LOT of that can be laid at the door of Sir Keir Starmer. Just look at this.
He started badly and then it got worse. No other Prime Minister has become so unpopular so quickly. This is a very unusual and I don’t think that swapping Starmer for another can fix it. The economy is going down the tubes, our streets aren’t safe for even dog walkers, the border is wide open and fixing this requires competence. Labour does not have this resource so my forecast is that, if anything, Labour will keep declining. I see no way back for Labour at this point.
