David Vance SubstackRead More
There is a scene in the “Monty Python and the Holy Grail” movie that reminds me of Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch’s current position as she tries to pretend all is well when it couldn’t be much worse. The scene involves King Arthur’s battle with the increasingly delusional Black Knight who pretends that his serious wounds are but a trifle!
Kemi’s current attempt to project strength in the wake of high-profile defections to Reform UK has simply highlighted deep cracks in her leadership! Contrary to what she is suggesting, the Conservative Party’s position has never seemed more precarious!
In a lengthy letter to all her MPs, Badenoch has dismissed the exits of Robert Jenrick, Andrew Rosindell, and former minister Nadhim Zahawi as a “minor setback” driven by “character” flaws rather than policy or ideology.
‘Tis but a scratch!
However these defections really do represent a significant blow. Jenrick, Badenoch’s former leadership rival, was sacked after evidence of secret talks with Nigel Farage surfaced. Badenoch accused him of disloyalty, claiming he “resolved to leave some time ago” yet continued to “present himself as part of a collective effort.” Yet he was a major asset and he is now gone.
Rosindell’s departure, citing inadequate Conservative opposition to the Chagos Islands sovereignty transfer, was swiftly dismissed by Badenoch as pretextual and unconvincing. She claims that his reasons “do not stand up to scrutiny” and that he had long harboured “difficulties.” Yet this casually dismisses legitimate concerns over the policy, which originated under previous Conservative administrations. This tends to validate accusations that Badenoch’s team in her bunker prioritises internal purges over effectively dealing with Labour government.
Badenoch’s insistence that the party remains “THE party of the right” also ignores reality: Reform UK is siphoning support from disillusioned conservatives, with polling showing the Tories languishing below 20%% nationally. Her net favourability stands at a dismal -26%, unchanged despite recent efforts. The Conservatives seem to be Libdems cosplaying at being Conservatives and many people now see this.
Reform is gaining traction by positioning itself as the unapologetic voice on immigration, national identity, and economic populism—issues where Badenoch’s approach does not seem credible. The letter’s warnings against “psychodrama,” “intrigue,” and staff briefing against the party also reveal her paranoia rather than confidence. Urging MPs to vet their own teams for alignment with “our strategy and values” suggests a siege mentality, and it’s really not a good look. Who is to say that there may not be even more MP’s jumping ship to Reform in the weeks ahead. I reckon she is desperate to try and head that off if she can. (Spoiler Alert; She can’t)
Badenoch’s prediction that Reform will somehow suffer from “internal contradiction and ideological incoherence” by absorbing Conservative defectors appears to be just wishful thinking; Jenrick’s addition bolsters Farage’s credibility, providing him with experienced parliamentary firepower.
She has scheduled important meetings with right-wing Conservative MPs and the full parliamentary party with the aim of enforcing unity, but the ultimatum—”those who want to undermine or destroy the party will be dealt with firmly and fairly”—smacks of authoritarian control rather than real inspirational leadership.
With Reform’s momentum building ahead of local May elections, Badenoch’s response may accelerate defections rather than stemming them. Eventually, Kemi will be left flailing as the new King moves ahead!
