David Vance SubstackRead More
Scotland and Wales go to the polls on May 7th to elect political parties to their respective Assemblies. If we go by the current polls, there is every likelihood that the SNP and Plaid Cymru will top the polls and assume control of both legislative bodies. If you consider that Sinn Fein control the Northern Ireland Assembly, we will wake up on May 8th with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all under the control of radical nationalists who see separation from England as their end goal.
So could this be the beginning of the end of our United Kingdom?
It won’t happen overnight of course but the reality is that this would leave England surrounded by centre-left nationalist-led governments in the Celtic nations. SNP figures like Angus Robertson and John Swinney have described the prospect as a major shift, with Scotland potentially “leading a great wave of change” amid consistent polling around 50% support for independence. It means that there will be potential constitutional challenges ahead for Starmer’s Labour government, including possible coordinated demands or a “Celtic rebellion” on issues like further devolution or independence referendums.
When Tony Blair pushed devolution in the late 1990’s, I vocally opposed it. The reason I did so was because I believed that Blair wanted to atomise the UK into regions that would ultimately pull it apart. Apart from creating jobs for mostly third rate politicians, Devolution was always going to be destructive and all the more so if there was ever a centre right Government at Westminster. With the shadow of a Reform Government in 2029, this sets up major conflict. We will have radical leftists in Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast, who are diametrically opposed to Reform values and policies. This is going to lead to all kinds of constitutional conflict and where it goes I dread to think.
Before we even get there, we have three more years of hard Labour. Starmer (or his successor) That means that there is a lot if sympathy for the sort of left wing values that SNP, Plaid and Sinn Fein espouse. There will be pressure to rejoin the EU which is likely to be met sympathetically. There will be a demand for more taxpayer £££’s to be shifted away from England. There will be demands for the regions to be granted greater tax raising powers. There will be demand for the UK to further isolate itself from the USA. So on every basis we see pressures for Westminster to pivot hard left and with a weak PM like Starer I think that’s a cert.
I believe in a strong United Kingdom and that is why had I my way I would mothball these Devolved Entities. But that is most unlikely and Tony Blair understood that back in 1997. It’s going to be in 2026 that the all the devolution pigeons come home to roost.
