David Vance SubstackRead More
Wasn’t it interesting when President Donald Trump said a few back that he will order his administration to declassify secret government records related to the 1937 disappearance of Amelia Earhart? This is one of the enduring aviation mysteries and it will be fascinating to see what new is revealed, if anything!
I am intrigued by something called the Nikumaroro Hypothesis. This makes the claim that Amelia Earhart and her navigator Fred Noonan did not crash and sink into the Pacific Ocean during their 1937 attempt to circumnavigate the globe, as per the official U.S. Navy conclusion.
Instead, after running low on fuel, they made a controlled crash-landing on the coral atoll of Nikumaroro (formerly Gardner Island), an uninhabited island in the Phoenix Islands group approximately 1,200 miles southeast of Howland Island (their intended refuelling stop). Earhart and Noonan are believed to have survived as castaways for weeks, months, or possibly up to two years, scavenging for food and water before succumbing to starvation, injury, or exposure.
On July 2, 1937 Earhart’s Lockheed Electra 10E ran out of fuel near Howland Island; the pair veers off-course toward the Phoenix Islands. Weak radio transmissions (e.g., “New York from N.R. 2812” and SOS calls) are detected for several days from the vicinity of Nikumaroro, suggesting a landing and use of the plane’s radio. The theory goes that the castaways moved inland from the reef, establishing a camp near a freshwater spring; Earhart may have died first, with Noonan surviving longer.
Two years late the island was colonised by British settlers, who reportedly found signs of prior habitation, including bones and artifacts later linked to the duo.
Let’s consider if there is there any actual evidence to suggest that any of this happened?
Well, there were radio signals!
Analysis of 120+ distress calls received by amateur and professional operators in the days following the disappearance, with signal bearings triangulating to Nikumaroro.
The there was a woman’s shoe (size 9, consistent with Earhart’s) and a matching shoe sole was found on the island in 1940. A jar of freckle cream (brand used by Earhart) was discovered in 1991. A sextant box etched with a serial number possibly matching Noonan’s equipment. More recent finds (as of 2025), including a potential makeup bottle from the era, analysed for links to Earhart.
There were partial skeleton remains (skull, humerus, radius) found in 1940; forensic analysis in 1998 suggested it belonged to a white female of Earhart’s height and build, though later DNA tests were inconclusive Sonar and photographic evidence of a mid-1930s aircraft-like object (the “Taraia Object”) on the reef, interpreted by proponents as Earhart’s Electra; there are underwater surveys ongoing.
Finally, they found modified GI ration boxes, a camp site with fire features, and fish bones which indicate human activity around the time of the disappearance.
There’s a MAJOR joint effort going on this year by the Purdue Research Foundation and Archaeological Legacy Institute aims to locate the plane using advanced sonar and drones. Here is the mystery object that has been spotted.
It may be the fuselage of her Elektra 10E!
I love these unsolved mysteries!
