David Vance SubstackRead More
Well, it turns out that all the hype about the May 7th Elections was pretty well vindicated! I have been saying for months that Starmer will not survive the fall out if these went wrong and I stand by that.
So let’s try and just summarise what really happened.
If we start with the English local council results, you might recall that Labour initially tried to cancel these and we can now all understand why! Happily, they failed.
Reform has exploded onto the local government map and Labour has suffered an absolutely brutal collapse. The Conservatives also took heavy damage and the lunatic Greens made progress!
In the 136 English councils that went to the polls, Reform won a staggering 1,453 councillors, a net gain of 1,451 seats from a near‑zero base. Labour was left with 1,068 councillors, losing 1,496 seats, while the Conservatives dropped to 801, down 563. The Liberal Democrats gained 155, and the Greens surged to 473 councillors, up 411.
Out of 136 councils, 39 changed control, with Labour losing 38 councils it previously held. Reform UK took control of 14 councils, many in areas that had been solidly Labour. The Conservatives lost 6 councils, while the Lib Dems gained one and the Greens took control of four.
A further 24 councils fell into no overall control, leaving local coalitions and deals inevitable. With over 5,000 seats contested, the results underline a fracturing of England’s local political landscape.
Reform were the BIG winners. Labour the big losers. The Conservatives also performed badly which makes Kemi Badenoch claims that her party is “on the way back” look frankly ridiculous! I couldn’t believe it when she starting claiming this!
Wales was a key battleground and in some ways it is where Labour went to die! Plaid Cymru emerged as the dominant force in a result that shattered Labour’s long‑standing grip on power. In the first contest under the new 96‑member system, Plaid won 43 seats, becoming the largest party in the Welsh Parliament for the first time. Reform secured a dramatic breakthrough with 34 seats, firmly establishing itself as a major player in Wales.
Labour suffered a devastating collapse, reduced to just 9 seats, its worst ever result in Wales and the first time since devolution that it has neither led the government nor topped the poll. This was the defining moment.
The Conservatives won 7 seats, while the Greens entered the Welsk Senedd for the first time with 2 seats and the Liberal Democrats took 1.
With no party reaching the 49‑seat majority threshold, Plaid must now negotiate a deal, most likely with Labour and/or the Greens, to form a government.
The result also claimed a major scalp, as First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat, the first time a serving UK head of government has ever been ejected from their own legislature.
The upside is that Labour were destroyed. The downside is Plaid are even worse than Labour as time will prove. Welsh Nationalism is going to hurt Wales!
Moving up to Scotland, we saw more drama! The SNP held on as the largest force at Holyrood but it did so in a far more fragmented parliament and against a backdrop of dramatic gains for Reform and continued decline for Labour and the Conservatives.
The final result left the SNP on 58 seats, short of the 65 needed for an overall majority in the 129‑member Scottish Parliament. The SNP saw a fall in their support, they lost seats but still captured top spot! Labour and Reform finished tied for second place on 17 seats each, a symbolic blow for a Labour Party that once dominated Scottish politics and a breakthrough for Reform, The Scottish Greens secured 15 seats, consolidating their role as a pro‑independence partner, while the Conservatives slumped to a historic low of 12 seats.
The BIGGEST LOSER in all of this is Labour. These results were catastrophic and pretty much in line with the polls. Wiped out in Wales, humbled in Scotland and trounced in England, Starmer cannot survive this, regardless of what he says. It’s my view he will be removed in the next week.
The BIGGEST WINNER is Reform. There has been a strong showing across every part of the UK that voted and it is now undeniable that it COULD end up as the Government of the UK come the next election. By the way, there was only one shadow for Reform and that was in Great Yarmouth where Rupert Lowe’s Great Yarmouth First candidates swept them away. Whether this was a one off or a sign of something else time will tell.
One of the MIGGEST takeaways from this is that the Uniparty at Westminster (Labour, Conservative and Libdems) is now irrelevant in Scotland and Wales. Since they don’t seven bother to stand in Northern Ireland, it shows how fractured the UK has become. These are no longer National parties,
Nigel Farage is clear setting the agenda in the UK and these elections have comprehensively proven this. Where it all leads, time will time but one thing is for certain – time’s up for Starmer!
