Will Andy Burnham undo Nigel Farage?
David Vance SubstackRead More
I think that we need to be very careful not to underestimate the guile of new Labour Leader and Prime minister Andy Burnham. In this article, I want to lay out the very real dangers that Burnham represents and why Nigel Farage should be very concerned.
Let’s start with Makerfield. Yes, Burnham was cynically parachuted into running for the seat and I recall more than a few pundits felt that it would be a very tight thing between him and Reform. I was one of them! But the truth of the matter was that Burnham was the easy victor with 55% of the vote and that was an increase in the 2024 General Election win. I think that Burnham ran a skilled campaign, avoiding media scrutiny to a large degree and playing up on his time as Manchester Mayor. The truth is Reform performed well enough but never ever came close to victory. That’s ominous.
No sooner does Burnham win Makerfield, but Starmer meekly steps down to allow Burnham to seize the leadership, uncontested! If you look back at the dates, it has happened at a very past pace. Burnham won Makerfield on the 18th June and he became Prime Minister on the 20th July. In terms of a bloodless coup, that’s remarkable and it shows that Labour is capable of accepting the need to change if it is to stay in power.
We all understood that Starmer was a very poor Prime Minister. We also understood that if Labour stuck with him, they most likely faced a wipe out come the next General Election. Here’s the thing – Labour understood that too. The May 7th election results were catastrophic for Labour and they seemed to recognise the urgency to bring change. So despite having won the 2024 with a whopping majority, Starmer was unceremoniously bungled out the door to create space for Burnham. His feet barely hit the floor. The consummate technocrat with no obvious human touch was gone, and Andy Burnham, the self styled “King of the North” arrived as his new replacement.
Burnham is DIFFERENT from Starmer and very quickly we saw a purge of many of the Starmerites. Reeves, Lammy, Kendall, Kyle, Reeves, even little Darren Jones, if you were identified as close to Starmer, you were gone. There was a ruthlessness about this which still has to play out as it may well have created tensions in some parts of the Labour machine but the truth is Burnham wants his regime to have a new face, a new image.
So in comes a brand new crew but yet many seem quite familiar! The most senior was was former Defence Secretary John Healey, who came Chancellor. Swivel eyed eco look Ed Miliband became Foreign Secretary. Shabana Mahmood stayed on as Home Secretary, with Yvette Cooper moving to Health Secretary. Then there is Wes Streeting, who dreamed of being Leader himself except he hadn’t the votes, who became Defence Secretary. Convicted fraudster. Louise Haigh, who resigned from the Starmer regime, is now First Secretary of State and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. The red queen herself, Angela Rayner, who had been forced to resign as Housing Secretary under Starmer is back as, yes, Housing Minister. This is team Burnham and it has a curious look about it – it is a re-brand of some of the most dodgy elements of Starmer’s regime, given a lick of paint and positioned as the new more NORTHERN alternative! The signal to the former red wall Labour voters is obvious and just to underline this, Number Ten NORTH was unveiled.
Now I didn’t realise that Manchester was exactly “North” – check out a map for further clarity – but Burnham seems proud that he now has a Power Base in Manchester and in London. In fact to underline line the “Northerness” to the new regime, he is allowing Rayner, Lucy Powell and Louis Haigh to work from there, rather than Downing Street.
He himself will spend at least a day a week there and he seems intent to turn Manchester into a national power base. The fact that this vanity project most likely doubles security costs and other overheads is incidental to Burnham, this is about image and about reaching out to voters in these areas. One quick test of this outreach is going to in a few days time when Manchester goes to the polls to elect Burnham’s successor as Mayor. I predict that Bev Craig, the Labour candidate, will romp home. I don’t think that Reform will come close and just as in Makerfield, there will be some soul searching amongst Reform ranks. Is losing to Labour in the north the new norm?
And talking of “normal”, Burnham has spent his first pushing out short little snappy videos that accentuate just how “normal” he is. Or so he wants you to believee. Look at this video he put out of him and the Chancellor John Healy in the pub comparing pub snacks! It’s like a “Pete and Dud” sketch but without the humour!
Burnham also likes to present himself as a bit of Dad DJ….this was posted on the official Labour TikTok…
Yes, I know we all think this is cringe but it’s also a very deliberate comms strategy.
His team are working flat out to make him appear “relatable” “one of us” – the proverbial everyman Prime Minister.
And THAT is the threat to Nigel Farage.
You see over the years, Farage has also carefully crafted an image of someone who enjoys a pint down his local pub. Maybe he does, maybe its all show, but it is very much core to Brand Farage.
Burnham is going to give Farage a run for his money if he continues with this “normalisation” strategy. The Manchester accent helps Burnham seem down to earth and even though it is ALL AN ACT, it’s one that Reform are going to have to work really hard to overcome.
After a week in power, and with this carefully curated media blitz, here is what at least one opinion poll is saying.
Reform have a problem and it is delusional to pretend otherwise. Given that Farage himself is caught up in the Clacton by-election and all the financial investigations into Reform finance, it seems to me that it is likely Labour will hold a clear lead by the Autumn. There will be an ecstatic Labour Conference as the King of the North is anointed to his adoring fans. (aka MPs desperate to keep their jobs)
Burnham has explicitly ruled OUT an early election in 2026. But what about next year? Just imagine that the Autumn Budget has enough sweeteners in it to keep the masses happy, he gets to May 2027 and he calls a snap election then. Could he then storm to a majority and 5 year rule? He has, after all, talked about the need for a TEN YEAR plan, as indeed did Starmer!
I’m not saying any of what I have written is inevitable. I am saying that underestimating Burnham would be a fatal mistake for Reform and Farage.
Do you agree?
