David Vance SubstackRead More
I see that Immigration has once again returned to the top of our national agenda, as new polling shows it is once again the single most important issue for British voters.
With 51% of people now citing immigration as a key concern it edges ahead of the economy. The economy remains an almost equally pressing worry, with 50% of respondents listing it as a major issue. That flatlining figure suggests that while inflation has eased a bit, households are still feeling the pinch from high prices, rent and mortgage costs. Economic growth is virtually zero, jobs are hard to find and so many of our young people see little hope.
Voters appear to see immigration and the economy as closely linked, with debates over labour shortages, wages and public services feeding into both.
What is most fascinating for me is that our Labour Government is failing miserably on both fronts and that augers badly for the May election! How can they fail on both and yet succeed at the polls?
Perhaps the most striking other movement, however, is on defence. Concerns about defence have surged to 35%, a remarkable 10 point jump. We can assume that war in the Middle East is the thing that has raised awareness here with more than a third of the public now seeing defence as a top‑tier priority.
This shift will increase pressure on ministers to justify defence spending levels, explain deployments abroad and set out a coherent strategy for Britain’s role in a more dangerous world. In all these areas too, Labour is absolutely cack handed so that heaps even more pressure on them.
By contrast, some more traditional domestic priorities have slipped down the hierarchy. Health, while still a major concern for 29% of voters, is down three points. That may reflect a sense of resignation with long NHS waits as much as any genuine improvement.
Other issues show more modest declines. The environment is now named by 14% of respondents, down two, suggesting that climate and green policy have been pushed aside somewhat by immediate worries over borders, security and living costs. Welfare stands at 13%, also down two, indicating that debates over benefits and social security, while still present, are no longer central in the way they were during previous periods of austerity and welfare reform.
Tax and crime both sit at 18%, moving only marginally – tax up one point, crime down one. These numbers hint that while people remain consistently concerned about how much they pay to the state and how safe their communities feel, neither has the explosive potential of immigration.
Looking at what the British people WANT and comparing that to what Labour is DELIVERING, there is a massive chasm. It’s not clear who will best fill this but nature abhors a vacuum and this May, I think we will see sensational changes. It is my experience that politicians follow the people and come May 8th, the political class will see what we REALLY think.
