David Vance SubstackRead More
It seems to me that the 30 day ceasefire proposition just accepted by Ukraine and brokered by the US is one that Russia should reject.
I know this sounds counter intuitive and do remember that I opposed this NATO engineered conflict from Day One so let me lay out my reasoning and tell me what you think.
Russia has consistently emphasised that any ceasefire must address the “root causes” of the conflict and lead to a long-term resolution aligned with its strategic interests, rather than a temporary pause. A 30-day ceasefire, as proposed, does not guarantee a lasting settlement and could be seen as a delay tactic rather than a solution.
The truth of the matter is that from a military perspective Russia is currently making territorial gains, particularly in the Kursk region and eastern Ukraine, and a ceasefire could halt this momentum, allowing Ukraine to regroup and strengthen its position.
Putin has explicitly raised concerns about how Ukraine might use the 30-day period, questioning whether it would “continue forced mobilization” or receive additional weapons from the West. With the U.S. now resuming military aid and intelligence sharing following the Jeddah talks, Russia fears that a ceasefire would serve as a “one-sided operational pause” benefiting Kiev. He has a point that the Western media ignore.
Russia has historically and understandably demanded no NATO membership for Ukraine, no foreign troops on Ukrainian soil, and acknowledgment of its control over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. The U.S.-Ukraine proposal, as outlined in joint statements, lacks mention of these basic security guarantees or territorial concessions, focusing instead on a temporary halt and humanitarian measures. Ukraine has made a point of stating that it wants NATO membership discussion to be part of the terms of the “30 day ceasefire”
Russia’s leadership has framed this war as an existential struggle against the West, and halting operations without achieving key objectives (e.g., full control of claimed territories) could face backlash from nationalist factions and the public. Rejecting a ceasefire aligns with the image of resolve Putin has cultivated, especially as territorial gains bolster this narrative.
It’s for all of these reasons that I think Putin will not rush in and instantly agree to the ceasefire. It is not to Russian advantage and may embolden the Zelensky leadership. Putin should discuss these issues with Trump and I am sure that a ceasefire will come, but it may be later than some think.
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