David Vance SubstackRead More
If it is an international institution, It is most likely to be a globalist problem and thus is the case with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK economy this year, but has also warned about the possible impact of Donald Trump’s economic plans. The global institution upgraded its prediction for UK growth to 1.6% for this year from its previous estimate of 1.5%.
There is a but, however…..
But it said a threatened wave of tariffs by incoming US president Trump could make trade tensions worse, lower investment, and disrupt supply chains across the world. The IMF also said although tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation could boost the US economy in the short term, they could ultimately backfire.
That did not stop the UK Treasury taking a victory lap.
When it was the Conservative Government, the IMF constantly revised down and underestimated U.K. yearly growth, being repeatedly proven wrong each time. Now there is a Labour government and there is likely an imminent recession, they upgrade growth.
Whether it is the WEF, the UN, the WHO, the World Bank OR the IMF they all pursue the same narrative and we should treat forecasts such as this from the IMF with contempt.
Every major economic signal suggests UK economic decline. Having shown strong growth Jan-June 2024, the UK economy then fell into stagnation when Labour came to power with Starmer and Reeves bizarrely talking down our prospects. In the aftermath of the Reeves Autumn budget, we saw zero growth and even December disappointed.
UK retail sales volumes saw a decline of 0.3% in December 2024, following a marginal increase of 0.1% in November, according to the latest estimates from the country’s Office of National Statistics (ONS).
As we move through January 2025, there is nothing to suggest the growth the IMF is claiming for the UK, with massive tax increases hitting in April 2025. The likelihood is that the UK may enter a light recession by the summer and that is BEFORE factoring in the possibility of Trump tariffs.
Note the hostility shown by the IMF towards the incoming Trump regime, suggesting that any fiscal changes brought in will not help the US in the medium term.
Kristalina Georgieva is the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (She was appointed to the role in September 2019 and began her second term on October 1, 2024. Kristalina had been CEO of the World Bank from 2017 to 2019. That’s how this lot of globalists operate, they move seamlessly between their constructs, posture, punish and destroy.
The IMF is reliably wrong. Ignore it.
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