One of the things most obvious in current British politics is that the outcome of the looming General Election will be as much decided as those who do not go out to vote as much as by those who do! The people that refuse to partake in the democratic process will actually direct its outcome.
We saw this in the Wellingborough-by election. In 2019, 32,277 people decided to go to the polls and support Conservative candidate Peter Bone. By contrast, only 13,737 people voted Labour. This was all on a 64.3% turnout. So even there, the massive chunk of the non-voters was bigger than any voters a Party could attract. This past week, we witnessed Labour WIN this constituency with 13, 844 votes, barely up on the 2019 figure. The game changer was what happened to Conservatives voters because where there had been 32,277 it plummeted to a mere 7408. Basically the Conservative vote decided to stay at home and it was that dynamic that changed the outcome.
If we look at what happened in the other English by election at Kingswood, it’s pretty much the same story. The Conservative vote shrunk from 27, 712 in 2019 to a miserable 8675. By contrast the Labour vote went from 16,492 to 11,176! Yes, that’s right, fewer people voted for BOTH parties but Labour won. Yes, of course turn out halved as well, it always does in a by-election but the point is that a large number of Conservative voters decided to stay at home and NOT vote.
I suggest this will be the story of the 2024 General Election when it is eventually called. We have a Labour Party with an uninspiring leader and a bland message. That will be enough to bring out its voter base and THAT will win it five years in power, god help us. By contrast, there are many Conservative-minded voters that have no interest in voting this time around and will sit it out. We can discuss why this might be but my own sense is that after 13 years of Conservative Government that has failed on just about every measure, that is simply enough. A significant portion of their voters will put their feet up and stay at home.
So the “Stay at home” vote, ironically, will decide the next Government!
As Lady Thatcher once observed “It’s a funny old world”!
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