David Vance SubstackRead More
A recent YouGov poll commissioned by The Sun (Red Flag!) reveals that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could significantly challenge Labour’s hold on the Red Wall in a hypothetical general election, with 68% of voters believing Britain is “broken.”
The Red Wall, traditionally Labour-supporting northern English constituencies that flipped to the Conservatives in 2019, appears very vulnerable as dissatisfaction with Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government grows. The poll, conducted among 1,000 Red Wall voters, projects Reform UK winning 43 seats, largely at Labour’s expense, reducing Labour to 24 seats while the Conservatives would secure only seven.
The survey highlights widespread discontent, with 68% of respondents feeling Britain is in decline, citing high taxes, NHS struggles, and immigration concerns as key issues. Only 12% believe the country is on the right track. (I assume they are in an asylum!) Labour’s lead over Reform UK has narrowed to just one point (25% to 24%), with the Conservatives trailing at 21%. In specific Red Wall battlegrounds like Hartlepool and Great Grimsby, Reform UK leads significantly, polling at 34% and 33% respectively, against Labour’s 28% and 29%. This shift suggests that Reform UK is capitalising on voter frustration, particularly among 2019 Conservative voters, 24% of whom now back Farage’s party. This also explains why the Conservatives have next to zero traction!
Starmer’s personal ratings are also faltering, with a net favourability of -36%, worse than Farage’s -27% and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s -29%. Focus groups portray Labour’s governance as chaotic and Starmer as struggling to connect with northern voters. Farage, despite polarising opinions, resonates with those disillusioned by mainstream politics, with supporters praising his apparent bluntness on issues like immigration and taxes.
The poll findings suggest a volatile political landscape, where Reform UK’s populist appeal could reshape the Red Wall, exploiting perceptions of Labour’s failure to address voter priorities like economic stability and immigration.
So that’s what they want you to believe.
Now, here’s the flip side.
For many decades, The Sun has been vocally pro Conservative although it did switch support to Tony Blair when it suited. It is a de facto globalist rag aimed at a particular demographic. Back in its heyday, it claimed that it helped WIN a UK General election for the truly awful John Major.
I find it interesting that it now seems to be supporting Farage and his Reform vehicle. It’s not as if The Sun has the best interests of the UK at heart. I view it as a mechanism to help shape British political opinion and THAT is what is happening here. The UK establishment knows that there is widespread dissent on big issues like immigration and Islam but it needs to make sure this is channelled into “approved” channels and might that be what Reform is being set up to provide?
Reform supporters are very passionate and seem heavily invested in Nigel Farage, almost like a personality cult. Yet on the BIG issues, Farage is far from convincing and his stance could be seen to the LEFT of Conservatives like Robert Jenrick. Farage has ruled out any political challenge to Islam and mass deportation. He favours left wing ideology like nationalisation and has been vocally pro Ukraine. It’s as if Reform is a strange hybrid that looks Conservative but can act like Labour. Farage has moved against people like Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe, individuals who DO sound authentic and had them removed from the Party. This could simply be evidence that he is an egomaniac OR that he doesn’t really want authentic Reform voices.
I have frequently wondered out loud if Farage is a Judas Goat and that he is being permitted to be successful with his milquetoast “conservatism”. When I see The Sun doing polls to show how popular he is, I think I am on to something! What do you think? Is it Nigel uber alles?
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