Well then, we have further developments in the ever-entertaining Rochdale by-election and I want to explore the broader significance this has for Labour in particular and the UK more broadly.
The Rochdale by-election was brought about by the death of Labour MP Tony Lloyd last month. This constituency mostly elects Labour MP’s and the last time a Conservative won it was in the early 1950’s. In other words this really is a sold RED seat. However, there have been demographic changes in Rochdale over the years and it has a Muslim population that was in excess of 33% back in 2021. This has electoral implications and so it was no coincidence that Azhar Ali was selected as the candidate, on 27 January 2024. He is a Lancashire county councillor and the leader of the Labour group on the council. Labour through and through.
The bookies had him down as the runaway favourite to win the seat, a shoo-in! And then the wheels came off! Initially, it was reported that he had made some “anti-semitic” comments questioning whether Israel tried to stop the October 7th massacre of its own people. He subsequently issued a grovelling apology and the Labour high command accepted this and said they would stand by their man. That all changed overnight as it emerged that Ali had made *other* disparaging remarks which could be seen as also anti-Semitic. Imagine my surprise. On the basis of this new information, Labour have removed their support for him and expelled him from the party. This means there will be no official Labour candidate when the people of Rochdale go to the polls in a few weeks time – as it is too late to enter a new candidate. Mr Ali will stand as an Independent. Others in the race include Mr George Galloway, a man who has long been intensely critical of the Israel state. I remember debating him myself on this topic many years ago and he was viscerally hostile. Ali and Galloway will be chasing a similar demographic, I suspect, so who can win? I suspect Ali will win because he is local known to the electorate and, of course, Muslim. But nothing is certain in politics.
But let’s step back and look at the broader picture. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is trying to assert that the Party he leads will not tolerate anti-Semitism. This is curious given that several existing Labour MPs are very hostile to Israel and it would be interesting to examine what they have been saying since Oct 7th.
Furthermore, and this is the kicker, the British Muslim vote overwhelmingly votes Labour. However Labour’s current handling of the Israel/Gaza situation seems to have alienated a significant % of this voting bloc and it may look to find more wholeheartedly pro-Palestinian candidates to support. In the case of Rochdale this is George Galloway but what if an Islam Party of Britain emerges? That could cause an existential crisis for Labour as it might then lose up to half of the Muslim vote it so desperately relies upon. What to do then? Dare Labour be opposed to anti-Semitism whilst this is rampant in a key demographic it relies upon?
Watching to see what happens in Rochdale may provide us with a glimpse into the future of British politics. A win for Azhar Ali is essentially more of the same. A win for George Galloway represents something much more concerning.
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