Sudan stands at a crossroads, entangled in a labyrinth of political and military changes. The nation’s power structure is being sculpted by a fierce contest among various players within the military, Islamist groups, and civilian factions. Since the ousting of President Omar al-Bashir, the Army has held sway, but internal rifts are widening, exposing significant divisions at the top and fuelling a wider struggle for control.
A Fractured Military Leadership
Post the October 25, 2021 coup, tensions within Sudan’s military elite have escalated, particularly within the Sovereignty Council. Despite efforts to maintain a united stance against civilian opposition, cracks have appeared, notably between figures like Lieutenant General Shams al-Din Kabashi and Lieutenant General Yasser al-Atta.
Allegations have surfaced concerning al-Atta’s substance abuse, with claims of alcohol and drug use questioning his capability to make sound decisions. If true, this could severely impact the military’s strategic decision-making at a time when unity and clarity are paramount.
Personal Feuds or a Battle for Power?
The disputes might seem like personal rivalries, but there’s a deeper narrative at play – a battle for control between factions within the army. One faction leans towards negotiating with civilian groups, while the other clings to direct military governance, aligning with remnants of the old Islamist regime.
Retired Major General Kamal Ismail has called this out as a “conflict of interests,” stressing that the military should not be a battleground for political skirmishes. “The armed forces are not a political party or a trade union where different perspectives can coexist,” he remarked. “They are hierarchical institutions that should function with strict discipline and a clear chain of command.” This sounds like good advice!
Ismail further highlighted that this isn’t just about roles but about supremacy, with each faction positioning to either succeed General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan or to maintain control through Islamist alliances.
Yasir Arman from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – Revolutionary Current, has noted that both Kabashi and al-Atta have shifted their agendas post-revolution but remain united in quashing democratic movements, each seeking to solidify their power base within or beyond the military.
The Shadow of Islamism Over the Military
As Sudan’s political turmoil deepens, there’s a noticeable resurgence of Islamist influence within the military. Ali Karti, a significant figure in Sudan’s Islamic Movement, allegedly holds sway that could challenge even General al-Burhan’s authority.
Concerns are mounting about the infiltration of Islamist elements into the military, with al-Atta’s suspected links to groups like the “Al-Baraa bin Malik Battalion” suggesting a covert push to expand Islamist control within the security forces. This scenario casts doubt on the military’s claimed political neutrality.
What Lies Ahead? The Risks of Military Infighting
The future of Sudan hangs in balance, with military infighting threatening national stability. Analysts fear that these internal divisions could undermine the army’s effectiveness against rising security issues, potentially leading to further state fragmentation.
Moreover, the growing Islamist influence might isolate Sudan internationally, as fears of a return to an authoritarian, Islamist-dominated government could scare off vital foreign support and investment.
Sudan’s path forward hinges on whether its leaders can transcend personal and factional rivalries to forge a power-sharing deal. Yet, as the struggle for control intensifies across the military and political spectrum, the country teeters on the edge of a defining moment. The next few months will be critical in determining Sudan’s direction as the battle for institutional control continues to unfold.
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