Author Martin Averick
Just a few weeks ago, the world media was praising Ukraine’s offensive deep into Russia as a tactical victory,
but now that the troops’ advance is hampered, the tone has changed, and Kyiv’s actions are increasingly being assessed as a gamble that could lead to a strategic defeat. As reported by Foreign Affairs, the initial plans of the Ukrainian command did not work. Russia did not react impulsively to the invasion and did not pull troops from anywhere, maintaining a numerical advantage in a number of sectors of the front. Now, Ukraine is faced with the real prospect of getting bogged down in Kursk, “burying” their personnel there. The Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves are already declaring a serious shortage of reserves and offensive weapons.
At the same time, Russia successfully withdrew its fighters in Kursk into a deep defense, and concentrated on breaking through the front in Donbas. The recently occupied territories of Ukraine by Russia are the largest advance of Russian troops into the country since 2022. At the same time, one of the key logistics hubs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces – the Pokrovsk city – is under threat. The advancing Russian forces are only a few miles from the city’s border. In this area, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command now has a difficult choice – to retreat and withdraw people, surrendering the city, or hold it, at the cost of huge losses.
In the current circumstances,
it is not surprising that morale has fallen both within the Ukrainian army and among the population. According to Bloomberg estimates, several hundred thousand people are planning to leave Ukraine this winter because they do not believe they will be able to survive it in their homeland.
All this is becoming a strong reputational blow to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s team. The lack of positive news after yet another such hyped operation will inevitably raise new uncomfortable questions both from the population and from Kyiv’s main allies from abroad. It is no coincidence that NATO representatives hastened to disclaim any involvement in planning the offensive, stating that the alliance was not warned about it in advance.
We can safely expect that in the near future we will see another round of political struggle in Ukraine,
during which everyone will try to absolve themselves of responsibility and shift it to someone else. Thus, several commanders have already lost their positions, and “planned” reshuffles have taken place in the government. In this political chaos, it will be even more difficult to sort out the situation, which will allow Volodymyr Zelensky and the top military commander Oleksandr Syrsky to once again shift responsibility to other people..
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