David Vance SubstackRead More
Today see the 2025 local elections in England and they are poised to potentially reshape the political landscape, with Reform UK predicted to emerge as THE major force, according to Politics UK’s comprehensive forecast.
Covering 23 councils and six mayoral contests, the elections involve over 1,600 council seats across 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough. This analysis, based on polling data and historical trends, highlights a dramatic shift in voter sentiment, with Reform UK projected to secure the most seats, signalling a potential challenge to the dominance of Labour and the Conservatives.
Politics UK’s final poll predicts Reform UK will win 522 council seats, surpassing the Conservatives (452 seats), Liberal Democrats (414 seats), Labour (101 seats), and the Greens (79 seats). This will be a historic upset, with Reform capitalising on voter dissatisfaction with the traditional two-party system.
The Conservatives, defending nearly two-thirds of the seats from their 2021 high under Boris Johnson, face really significant losses. Labour, despite the 2024 general election landslide last summer, is projected to really struggle, potentially losing ground due to declining popularity and controversies like winter fuel allowance cuts. The Liberal Democrats, polling at around 15% nationally, are expected to also make gains, particularly in southern strongholds like Devon and Cornwall, aiming to overtake the Conservatives as the second-largest party in local government.
The elections cover councils predominantly under Conservative control (15 of the 23), with Labour holding only one (Doncaster) and seven under no overall control. Politics UK predicts that Reform UK could take control of eight councils, including potential upsets in Labour-held Doncaster and Durham, where Labour is the largest party. Key battlegrounds include Derbyshire and Lancashire, which have historically swung between Labour and Conservatives. Reform UK’s strong polling in northern areas like Doncaster, where Nigel Farage has campaigned heavily, suggests they may challenge Labour’s traditional dominance.
There are six mayoral elections, including inaugural contests in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire. The polls indicate Reform UK leads in Lincolnshire and Hull, with a competitive race in Doncaster. Labour aims to retain North Tyneside and the West of England but faces pressure from Reform’s growing appeal among disaffected voters. The Conservatives are in for a tough night, with losses expected in councils like Kent and Staffordshire signalling broader reputational challenges.
The predictions reflect a broader “doom loop” in public sentiment, with voters citing cost of living, NHS struggles, and immigration as top concerns. Reform UK’s “Britain is broken” narrative seems to resonate well with disillusioned Labour and Conservative voters. These elections, while smaller than they should be due to government-led council reorganisations delaying some contests, serve as a critical test for party leaders, particularly Keir Starmer and Badenoch, and they could foreshadow a very different Britain.
If Reform does as well as expected, it will also limit any scope for new parties to emerge and crown Nigel Farage as THE leader of the opposition! All momentum will shift to Farage and Reform ahead of the 2029 General Election. Whether that is good or bad remains to be seen,
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