David Vance SubstackRead More
When we get to the Scottish elections in May, I think we should all expect a political earthquake that will have consequences for years to come north of the English border.
You see a groundbreaking MRP poll commissioned by The Times has projected a stunning majority for the SNP in the upcoming May Scottish Parliament election. The survey forecasts the SNP securing 67 seats in the 129-member Holyrood chamber, marking a gain of three from their 2021 tally. This outcome would grant First Minister John Swinney an outright majority, potentially bolstering claims for a second independence referendum. So despite the furore over the Nicola Sturgeon exit in disgrace, and despite Swinney being utterly charmless, the SNP will gain GREATER power in Holyrood!!
The poll really does highlight a dramatic reshaping of Scotland’s political landscape. Reform UK is predicted to emerge as the second-largest party with 25 seats—a remarkable debut from zero in 2021. This comes at the expense of traditional parties, with the Conservatives plummeting to just seven seats, a loss of 24, and Scottish Labour dropping to 15 seats, down seven. The Liberal Democrats are expected to gain four seats to reach eight, while the Greens hold steady at seven, shedding one. So Labour get crushed and Reform become the opposition – quite incredible when you consider it!
Stonehaven’s methodology, which analyses large datasets to predict seat-by-seat outcomes, proved highly accurate in the 2024 UK general election, underestimating results by only 38 seats. So this is something worth thinking about! Electoral analysts attribute the SNP’s projected success to tactical voting, particularly among Labour supporters who will switch to the Nationalists to thwart Reform’s advances in key constituencies. Labour really do have the most stupid voters imaginable!
The poll suggests the SNP could dominate 67 of 73 first-past-the-post seats, with tactical voting deciding some tight races. This “loveless landslide” echoes Starmer’s 2024 Westminster victory, where a large majority was achieved on a modest vote share.
The SNP’s projected 35% constituency vote and 30% regional list support reflect solid appeal despite recent scandals and policy challenges, including economic strains and public service issues. Swinney has emphasised that a majority would provide a clear mandate for pursuing independence, reigniting debates over Scotland’s constitutional future.
Meanwhile Reform’s rise underscores a growing national discontent with establishment parties, The Conservatives’ collapse signals a potential realignment, with voters fragmenting across the right. Labour leader Anas Sarwar could be facing the exit door too. as surveys show his party’s support eroding further amid internal divisions. He called for Starmer to resign but it might be that he goes first. Labour is a hot mess in Scotland and I see zero evidence things can get better!
As the May election approaches, this poll also serves as a wake-up call for Unionists. with Scotland into another term of Nationalist governance!
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