The poor man of NATO…?
David Vance SubstackRead More
There was a time in the mid to late 1970’s when the UK was known as “the sick man of Europe” as the economy cratered and we even ended up with a 3 day working week! That was under a Labour Government, of course. In 2026, are we the poor man of NATO?
The reason I ask this is that there is crucial NATO summit in Ankara happening this week. NATO member countries are anxious to avoid a public showdown with President Trump over their levels of defence spending. As you know, Trump has repeatedly criticised European allies for failing to meet agreed spending targets. It seems obvious that he will use the two‑day meeting to assess progress towards NATO’s new goal of 3.5% GDP on defence by 2035. Which brings me to the UK.
This is where it gets awkward,
Embarrassingly, the UK is emerging as a particular concern for NATO. Starmer’s recently unveiled defence plan contains no clear road map to the 3.5% benchmark. This leaves PM in waiting Burnham with a considerable funding gap and no timetable for hitting the alliance target.
The UK Government spends about 2.3% of GDP on defence at present, according to recent figures. It claims it wants to reach 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, with a longer-term “ambition” of 3% and then 3.5%.
The new Defence Secretary, Dan Jarvis, has claimed that agreeing a plan is “mission critical” and says that he will stress Britain’s intent to allies in Ankara. But “intent” is simply that, just a hope, maybe just waffle? Where’s the £££, Dan?
Trump’s patience appears thin. Last week he posted a chart comparing US defence spending to that of other NATO members. He said the situation is “ridiculous” and complained that the relationship is not reciprocal. While US defence outlays dwarf those of other allies in absolute terms, Trump is annoyed at what he sees as European caution over conflicts such as the war in Iran.
The current NATO Sec. Gen. Rutte has resorted to flattery and emphasis on “progress” to try and keep Trump happy. Trump has admitted he almost skipped the meeting and said he is attending largely because it is hosted by Turkish President Erdogan. It is Starmer’s final NATO meeting and I wonder if Trump will take the opportunity to criticise the UK’s all talk and no action on NATO expenditure?
