The Exit Strategy Is Already Being Written
David Vance SubstackRead More
Keir Starmer is unlikely to resign in the dramatic fashion many of his critics imagine. There will be no sudden departure, no emotional speech announcing that he is walking away from politics altogether.
Instead, if the pressure becomes too great, expect something much more calculated.
Starmer will present it as a responsible transition of power. He will speak about stability, continuity and the national interest. He will outline a timetable. He will frame it as putting the country before himself. He will insist that leadership is bigger than any one individual.
In other words, he will create the appearance of choosing succession rather than admitting failure.
We’ve seen this playbook before. When David Cameron stood outside Downing Street after the Brexit referendum, he didn’t simply say he was resigning. He argued that Britain needed fresh leadership for a new political reality. The language was carefully chosen. It wasn’t an admission that he had lost control; it was presented as a statesmanlike handover.
Starmer could follow the same route.
The tell-tale sign will be the moment he begins talking less about leading Britain and more about facilitating the next phase of Britain’s leadership. Once a Prime Minister starts speaking like a caretaker rather than a leader, the countdown has begun.
What makes this scenario particularly cynical is Westminster’s well-established revolving door between politics and big business.
The numbers are striking. Analysis of appointments approved by the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments found that 217 former ministers, senior officials and advisers took up 604 private-sector roles between 2017 and 2022. Of those jobs, 177 had direct overlap with their previous policy responsibilities.
Former politicians moving into banking and finance is hardly unusual. George Osborne joined BlackRock after leaving government. Philip Hammond became an adviser to OakNorth Bank. Sajid Javid took a role with JP Morgan. Alistair Darling joined Morgan Stanley. David Cameron’s lobbying activities for Greensill became one of the biggest Westminster scandals in recent memory.
That is why many voters no longer see politics and corporate power as separate worlds. Too often, public office appears to be a stepping stone to a lucrative private-sector career.
If Starmer decides his time is up, don’t expect him to walk away empty-handed or disappear quietly into retirement. Expect a carefully managed departure, wrapped in the language of duty and national stability.
And if, a few months later, he surfaces in a highly paid advisory role at a major financial institution, plenty of people will conclude that the final chapter was written long before the resignation speech was delivered.
