David Vance SubstackRead More
The Caerphilly by-election takes place today to elect a new Welsh Senedd member following the death of Labour’s Hefin David in August. What makes this contest notable is that Caerphilly has been a Labour stronghold for over a century at both the Senedd and Westminster, but polls now predict a historic upset.
Here’s what things looked like in 2021 in this constituency;
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Labour : 13,289 votes — 46.0%
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Plaid Cymru : 8,211 votes — 28.4%
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Conservative : 5,013 votes — 17.3%
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Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party : 1,119 votes — 3.9%
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Green Party: 1,074 votes — 3.7%
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Liberal Democrats : 787 votes — 2.7%
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Reform UK : 495 votes — 1.7%
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UKIP: 505 votes — 1.7%
As you can see, Labour won by a substantial margin. It has won this seat in an unbroken record since 1918. But all the polls suggest something seismic will happen today. Here is what is forecast to unfold in this tribal Welsh Labour seat….
Now polls are polls, and this one shows a tight race between REFORM and Plaid Cymru but the point is Labour is nowhere. This is going to be a massive loss for the Party that governs Wales. In a truly pathetic last gasp stunt, Welsh Labour posted this fake poll hoping it can save the day. They are pretending it is close when it isn’t remotely close.
It seems that the people of Caephilly want change from Socialist Labour and today they will vote for it. If it goes the way I think, a seismic shock wave will ripply across UK politics in the next 24 hours. Labour will be smashed, the Conservatives obliterated. Quite how this works next year when ALL seats for the Welsh Senedd are up for grabs we will have to wait and see. It looks like Reform will top that poll although an unholy alliance between Plaid and Labour will keep them out of power. However you cut it, today should shake the socialists to their rotten core.
