David Vance SubstackRead More
I think there is a very strong possibility that Sir Keir Starmer will no longer by Prime Minister and Leader of Labour by summer 2026. The runes all say the same thing; Labour will be trounced in the May elections for the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments. Poll after poll gives the same forecast and it makes dreadful reading for Labour. The suggestion in Wales is that Labour will lose its majority in the Welsh Seneed and may even come in THIRD. That would be a historic loss. In Scotland, the SNP are expected to do well, with Reform taking share of the vote and Labour going nowhere. This will be sufficient to push Starmer out the door. Times up for the adenoidal barrister.
Which brings us to who will succeed him. I think there are 5 main contenders;
First, and most ludicrous, is Ed Miliband, the eco-zealot.
It seems he is very popular with his fellow MPs and let’s remember he DID lead Labour from 2010 to 2015. The only problem was he lead them to defeat. Would Labour be mad enough to elect him to lead them again?
Next, we have the bookies favourite to succeed Starmer, the ever so ambitious Wes Streeting. Starmer KNOWS that Streeting covets his job, hence the briefings against Streeting from within Number 10 that weren’t insisted wasn’t from within Number 10.
Streeting is gay, competent and am able media communicator. He is like a younger more natural version of Starmer, another Blair creation.
The third contender is the current Home Secretary Shabana Mahmoud.
Her rise and rise has been stratospheric and she is the one that can appeal to Labour’s Muslim view base. She speaks quite well and has taken on a quite right of Starmer political persona.
Then there is Angela Rayner, the “Red Queen”.
Yes, she fell from grace after that it was found that she had breached the ministerial code in relation to her failure to pay the correct amount of tax on one of her properties. But she still commands popularity and she WAS Deputy Prime Minister! She touts her “working class” credentials and is close to the Trade Unions. She cannot be underestimated.
The final dark horse contender is Manchester mayor Andy Burnham. He has made little attempt to play down his desire to become PM were the right circumstances to come about. The massive defeat awaiting Labour in May will bring those about.
Burnham has a problem though, he isn’t an MP. So he would need to find a sure fire Labour seat and persuade the incumbent MP to step down and he would need to win it. Given the rise of Reform, this is now less certain. So whilst Burnham would be a real contender IF he were a current MP, that’s a bit of a long short.
My conclusion is that a Streeting/Mahmood ticket would be most likely to win!
Yours?
