Is the Great Replacement true?
The David Vance BriefingRead More
Let me start this week on my Substack by telling you a short story about the town that I went to school. It is a place called Portadown. Back in the mid-1970’s. the demography of this town was essentially 100% White British. I do not recall anyone of any other ethnic origin in any class in my school. That was considered just normal.
Fast forward to 2000, and official stats show that the demography was still 99.15% White. So in the space of a few decades, there had been virtual no changes in the demographics. Zip. Nada.
However in the subsequent 25 years things have been a-changing and this is obvious in an image of a local Primary One 1 class that has appeared in the local press.
In it, the MAJORITY of young kids in this class are no longer White, but Black. I Saw three White kids in a class of 20, which is pretty mind boggling.
How can this be?
When I look at the most recent official stats for Portadown, they tell me that around 10% of the town is now of ethnic origin, with the largest number being Black African. And yet here is a P1 class around 80% Black African.
All of this is by way of a preamble to what I really want to discuss with you.
In 1984, Orwell explained;
Do you think that the Government and the authorities could be lying to us as to precisely how many migrants now live amongst us? Are they underplaying the real number and palming us off on a much lower number that will be a bit less frightening?
I am retired these days and when I am out and about, it is very hard not to notice the sheer number of ethnic migrant families. It is also noticeable that so many of them have very young children, often in prams. We know that the all-important total fertility rate is BELOW replacement level for the indigenous population.. We need 2.1 births per woman, in 2024 we had 1.6. So there is a problem even at the raw numbers level. The bigger question is – what if the TFR of those migrants who come here?
Black African TFR is approximately 1.85 times the White British rate → roughly 2.42. Pakistani TFR is even higher at 2.5%. Now whilst these levels are actually lower than in their home countries where 4-6 births per woman is normal, they are still much higher than our indigenous birth rates. In summary, they are outbreeding us.
When you then add in the huge numbers of migrants coming here, legally and illegally, I think you being to see WHY it is that more and more British towns and cities are now minority white. We are told that we are racist and “far right’ if we dare mention this. This is a way to close down debate and we have to be strong and ignore the bullies.
I am guessing most people reading this will have heard of the “Great Replacement” theory. When I google it, this is the response that I get; It is…
a debunked, far-right, white nationalist conspiracy theory claiming that white European and Western populations are being deliberately replaced by non-white immigrants and people of color.
Well, the problem with this “de-bunk” is that the evidence suggests that the White British population is shrinking exponentially and will be a minority by 2063.
In fact some of our major cities already manifest minority White populations. Just look at these stats;
London: White British ~37%; overall White ~54%. Already minority White British for years.
Birmingham: White British ~43%; overall White ~49%. Minority White British and effectively minority White.
Leicester: White British ~33%. Minority White British.
More and more will follow. So telling us that the “Great Replacement” theory is a conspiracy is fine and dandy but whatever you call it, White Brits ARE being demographically replaced.
The Primary School picture that I pictured earlier suggests that things are even worse than we are being told. Now it may be entirely unrepresentative and just some sort of regional blip. But just imagine for one moment that you are on the few White pupils in that class – wouldn’t you feel a stranger in your own country? And for how much longer will it be your country?
