Trump’s TERRIBLE deal.

David Vance SubstackRead More

I have supported Donald Trump since 2015 and have confidence in much that he says and does. But I cannot stand by and pretend that his “deal” with Iran is anything other than atrocious. Let me take you through how I see it.

As best as I can discern, the hyped “agreement”seems to sit on three core pillars.

First, the United States ends hostilities and promises not to attack again. That includes lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, though there is no clear commitment to make passage free, and it appears that US forces will withdraw and not return in the same way. Fighting in Lebanon also stops, which puts pressure on Israel to accept terms that would be hard to swallow. Strangely, Iran does not appear to make the same level of commitment to restraint.

Second, Iran comes out of this economically ahead. It gets immediate relief from oil sanctions, with permanent sanctions lifted and no new ones to be imposed. It also gains access to $24bn in frozen assets, plus a “rehabilitation fund” that could be worth at least $300bn. That is a huge win for a regime that has done so much damage to the region. Trump insists the US itself is not providing the $300bn but the fact is that he approves of this vast transfer of funds to bolster the death cult in Iran.

Third, the nuclear issue which was supposed to be central to all of this is barely touched. Iran simply “reaffirms” its existing commitment to non-proliferation, but that has always meant very little in practice. This is lip service. For civilian nuclear power, uranium only needs to be enriched to about 3.67%. Iran has repeatedly gone far beyond that, including enrichment levels of 20%, 60%, and higher, which point much more closely to weapons capability. Yet the agreement does not seem to require any real new commitment from Tehran. In effect, it leaves the nuclear question much where it was before the outbreak of war, with the final details supposedly to be settled within 60 days. In practice, that just gives Iran more room to delay.

It appears that Donald Trump has gained very little while giving up a great deal. The costs for the United States are substantial. There is now weaker deterrence, damaged alliances, a shift in the balance of power, reduced credibility and the loss of any element of surprise in future military planning.

Let’s now talk about The Strait of Hormuz because that is another major problem. If Iran chooses to shut it again in the future, for example during another crisis elsewhere, the United States may find itself with little effective leverage. Even the damage inflicted on Iran’s military might not matter much if sanctions relief and access to huge sums of money allow it to rebuild quickly. There is also nothing to say that passage will be “free” – Iran will simply impose “environmental taxes”! This has been a massive win for Iran and Trump himself said as much here.

It seems likely that the Tehran regime could regain its strength within a few years and emerge even stronger than before. So how is this a win? Meanwhile, the US-Israel relationship appears to be under strain. Trump has praised the Iranian leadership but called Netanyahu “difficult”

Meanwhile Israel is left more exposed, and 90 million Iranian people have once again been promised help that never fully arrived.

It did not have to end this way. Even with the mistakes the Americans made over Hormuz and the last-minute changes to the campaign, the outcome might have been different if Trump had held his line.

Instead, he blinked first. In fact, he did more than blink. He shut both eyes.

Have a look at Marco Rubio’s body language as Trump insists that Iran has right to ballistic missiles. He looks broken.