David Vance SubstackRead More
Now that Sir Keir Starmer has finally fallen on his sword, let’s just focus on the bit that happens next!
Starmer’s departure creates the vacancy at the top, and so attention has turned to the formal leadership election timetable. Nominations for the new Labour leader will officially open on July 9th and close on July 16th setting the stage for what could be either a swift coronation or a competitive contest.
It’s clear to me that this will be a formal coronation of the self styled “King of the North” Andy Burnham and to underline this, the only other contender to thwart crown, little Wes Streeting, has already pledged fealty to Burnham. There is no serious other contender and Labour will want to show unity.
Assuming that Burnham secures the necessary nominations and remains unopposed by the July 16th deadline, he could well be confirmed as Labour leader and subsequently become Prime Minister as early as July 18th. That’s less than a month. This rapid timeline would allow him to assume office well before the summer recess, thus providing Prime Ministerial continuity and so enable immediate focus on domestic and international issues.
We can expect a brand new cabinet to be appointed, a new Chancellor (Bye Rachel) and a concerted effort to imprint Brand Burnham on the British people. It seems likely that he will enjoy at leas a short term honeymoon and this is where I see a real problem. If Labour get lifted up in the polls, and are still riding high by the end of March next year, then it seems possible that Burnham might call a snap General Election. This would establish his authority for the next FIVE years. This is a nightmare prospect particularly as Reform and Restore knock 7 bells out of each other. If Labour were able to secure a further term, I don’t think the UK as we know it could survive that.
