David Vance SubstackRead More
President Trump has been rightfully scathing about Obama’s 2015 JCPOA deal with Iran. But the sublime irony is that he appears to be negotiating something that is much worse. This pivots around the claim made by JD Vance that Iran has agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country with discussions with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) happening “as soon as today”.
So what? Where lies the significance of the IAEA going back in? Has it any? JD Vance thinks so but what is the evidence?
In the 2015 JCPOA case, the IAEA did provide some monitoring, more inspections, camera coverage, seals, and environmental sampling, It later confirmed Iranian “compliance” and some breaches. But that is evidence of verification, not proof that the agency changed Iran’s behaviour in a deep or lasting way. Iran still pursued its Uranium dreams but in a more clandestine manner. Had it not achieved them then Trump would not have needed to bomb the hell out of nuclear facilities in 2025 and then again this year. Right?
I think it fair to say that IAEA improves some visibility but not necessarily outcomes. Their reports showed Iran was complying whilst the deal held, and it documented when limits were breached later, but the only real restraint came from the political agreement and sanctions structure, not from the agency acting on its own. The agency itself says its job is to verify commitments and maintain assurance, which is narrower than preventing proliferation by force.
If we ask point blank the crunch question “did the IAEA stop Iran from pursuing nuclear capabilities?”, the answer is a solid no. It may have made cheating a bit harder to hide and it gave the U.S. and its partners better warning and some leverage. That matters, but it is a different thing from saying it solved the problem. h
In the current Trump/Vance arrangement, the IAEA’s role appears more limited because Iran has removed some monitoring equipment and reduced access, which the agency says harms its ability to give assurance about the program’s peaceful nature. That suggests the IAEA remains useful as a watchdog, but it is not the main driver of compliance in either case.
So JD Vance can big it up as a real achievement, just as Obama did, but if was all they claimed, he and Trump would not have needed to bomb those nuclear facilities in 2025 and 2026.
