It’s REFORM vs the Uniparty and the rest is distraction!
The David Vance BriefingRead More
By the time you read this, the result of the Clacton by-election will have been announced. Nigel Farage will win – and when he does, I predict that it will be by an even larger majority than he achieved in 2024! What fascinates me is not just the result of the election but rather how the campaign preceding it unfolded, as Clacton offers quite a revealing insight into the state of British politics in 2026.
For as long as we remember, British politics has been run on the assumption that there are two choices, two sides, two teams. The choice between Labour or Conservative, Red or Blue.
One of this lots messes things up, we get sick of them and eventually we put the other lot in power. And after some time find out that they aren’t much better and the cycle repeats itself ad nauseam. It goes on and on even as the country goes down the tubes!
Some say it is the two-party system. I would rather refer to it as the Uniparty. Its two cheeks of the same you-know-what!
Yes there are some minor differences between them, but when we take into consideration the big events that made this country change over the last few decades – both parties are remarkably similar.
Both Labour and Conservatives oversee mass, unwanted immigration. One gave us the curse of Net Zero, the other continues the pursuit of it with zeal. They both transferred power into hands of institutions most of us never voted for.
So while the language and rhetoric can change, the course remains the same.
Of course, the First Past the Post system comes to help. In fact, that is its point.
All of this makes life really hard for new parties, making people believe that voting for any of them means wasting your vote! I know this as I was involved in two young parties.
The question that becomes absolutely clear is:
If Britain is in the state that most of us think it is in, why on earth would we believe that the solution will come from one of those two parties that got us here?
All of this brings me to Reform. You do not have to like Nigel Farage. You do not even have to particularly like Reform. But it seems obvious to me that the political and media establishment fears him in a way it does not fear most other politicians.
And the reason for this is obvious.
Farage has shown he can win.
That is why the endless attacks on him never cease
For years, Westminster could just about tolerate Farage as an outsider. He was good television. He could stir things up and influence the national debate. But the establishment could always reassure itself that, when push came to shove, voters would go back to Labour or the Conservatives. Team Red or Team Blue. The endless duopoly.
That assumption is now looking a lot more dodgy.
The May 7th elections were important because that’s when Reform showed that it could turn anger into actual votes and actual seats. It could WIN! And it did win!
That is the bit which scares the old parties. Once voters start believing Reform can win, the whole “don’t waste your vote” argument begins to fall apart. Isn’t it odd how the heat on Reform has soared since then? Hardly a coincidence, I suggest.
The attacks on Farage have become more intense. Senior Reform figures are examined constantly. Old remarks are dug up. Reform candidates are picked apart and the party is regularly portrayed as some sort of threat to the country.
It’s nothing of the sort but it is a threat to the Uniparty and they know it.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I am all for scrutinising politicians. I don’t think that Farage should given a free pass. Neither should anyone else in Reform for that matter. But there is a vast difference between legitimate scrutiny and treating a political movement as if its very existence is somehow illegitimate!
Millions of Brits vote for Reform. On May 7th that number was 3,825,559!
That is called democracy in action and maybe instead of constantly asking what is wrong with people who vote Reform, the media might occasionally ask what Labour and the Conservatives did to lose them. That strikes me as a much more interesting question.
You see Reform did not create the anger. It did not create uncontrolled immigration, collapsing public trust, endless government incompetence or the feeling that huge parts of Westminster simply do not listen. It is the creation of these failures.
Yes, it has benefited from those things but that’s because the British people are sick of the rotten corpse of the Uniparty!
That is why Clacton matters. Yes, Farage winning comfortably would be significant.
But the bigger story is that the old political assumptions are starting to wobble.
The Conservatives can no longer simply assume that voters on the right will come home because they have nowhere else to go. Labour cannot assume that working-class voters who have abandoned the Tories will automatically fall back into its lap. And the media cannot assume that attacking Farage relentlessly will necessarily damage him.
In fact, I reckon it may have the opposite effect! People can smell when the establishment is trying too hard. The more hysterical some of the attacks become, the more certain voters start wondering why everyone is so desperate to stop this man.
In the run up to today’s result, the Uniparty refused to put up their own candidates and instead RALLIED AND CANVASSED for the BBC approved establishment figure Count Binface.
The REASON that they chickened out was because they knew that they would lose and didn’t want to suffer that public humiliation, albeit it for different reasons. My conclusion is that for the first time ever, the political establishment has concluded it could LOSE power in 2029 to Reform and that the prospect of Prime Minister Farage is now more than just a remote possibility. So it will thrown everything at Farage to damage him and Reform.
I know that there are people who follow me here that support Reforms’ challenger on the right, Restore Britain and that’s fine. Restore have put forward several excellent policy proposals and it has helped toughen up Reform. There has to be room for new parties with new ideas. But Restore will NOT be in a position to WIN very much outside of Great Yarmouth by 2029. Beyond that, if it survives, perhaps it could challenge the Reform Government and that is a nice problem to have.
Should Burnham call an early election, this simply reinforces my point. Restore is not ready and there is a danger that by taking away 5-6% of the Reform voting base, it enables a Uniparty win.
By contrast, Reform CAN win and I think we should recognise that simple truth.
What happens in Clacton is of fundamental importance to what happens to Britain and in this regard, I wish Farage and Reform well.
I want my country back and whoever can bring that change home gets my vote!
UPDATE
Nigel Farage has WON this by election and INCREASED his majority by 17% on the 2024 result. He refused to participate in the Count and in doing so binned Count Binface! As a final point, he won 63.8% of the vote. Andy Burnham managed 54% of the vote in Makerfield.
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