Will there be an early General Election?

David Vance SubstackRead More

Lots of people think that it would be appropriate if Andy Burnham calls a General Election when he becomes Prime Minister next month. (July 20th) The argument goes something like “Burnham needs to gain the endorsement of the British people to govern with real legitimacy”. It won’t happen, of course.

Turkeys do not vote for Christmas. Well, this Christmas, but what about June 2027?

I believe that Burnham WILL enjoy a honeymoon period with the British media and that Labour WILL rise in the polls. However this will be relatively short lived BUT it might get him to the end of March 2027. He then calls a General Election for May 7th 2027. Labour get back in for five more years and we are doomed.

Another alternative is that Burnham ignores all the noise and sets 2029 as his target date. Nothing I see from him suggests he wants to deal with any of the big issues such as immigration and Welfare. If that’s the case, he really will be Starmer in a pair of jeans and a black t shirt! It is also possible that as Labour lurches further to the Left, it picks up vote from the Greens which may give a little relief.

The hard reality is that Labour was elected in 2024, not Keir Starmer. So he has zero obligation to call any such General Election and therefore he won’t.

That said, here’s an interesting social media post from a certain Andy Burnham