Is Trump now Iran’s greatest asset?
David Vance SubstackRead More
I was talking to my financial adviser this morning and she was telling me that the international money markets have broadly speaking stopped reacting to President Trump’s pronouncements. The markets assumption in 2026 is that while he can and does communicate aggressively, this does not always follow through into action.
So they just don’t react one way or the other.
I think Iran has come to a similar conclusion.
Beneath the bellicose language from the White House, his actions are tempered.
Now this profoundly disappoints me, as I want to see the Islamic Republic of Iran fall, but we should take a few moments to actually try to work out WHY it is that Trump is actually trying to defend Iran from Israeli attack.
Why has he changed from “surrender or die” to “can we please have a deal”?
You see I think Trump is acting a lot less hawkish on Iran not because he has changed his thinking, but because the looming midterm elections are forcing him to confront the political cost of his actions. His aggressive stance toward Iran has been pushing up oil prices, raising inflation, and making everyday life generally that bit more expensive for American families. When voters start feeling that pain, the White House can’t simply blame external forces; Trump’s policies get the blame!
Trump is now looking to seal a deal with the Mullahs that ends this whole affair as quickly as possible.
The midterms are making the need for an exit all that much sharper. Trump just cannot afford a war that looks like a costly impasse while voters are worrying about prices and stability. He can still posture as the strongman, but the reality is that he is being forced to back off because his overreach has created a political liability.
At the same time, he can’t be seen as weak on Iran, so he tries to keep up the tough rhetoric while quietly looking for a way to reduce the risk. That’s a contradiction that some of us see straight through. Trump is trying to have it both ways: to look strong but behave weakly. Netanyahu looks the strong war time leader, not Trump,
