David Vance SubstackRead More
Trump is not forever. By 2028, the American people will choose a new President and Trump will not be standing. In a sense that saddens me because he is obviously the most consequential President in a very long time and life without him in the Oval Office is hard to imagine. No one triggers the left like Trump. He is truly unique and we will not see his like again. However, reality tells us that he will have a successor in the GOP who will stand for the Presidency so let’s think about who that might be!
J.D. Vance is the early favourite although the race is still in early stages. The Betting markets currently place him well ahead of Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis, while polling of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents shows Vance as the top name that they would consider backing in a primary.
Early presidential races often reward candidates who can inherit an existing coalition, and Vance appears to have the strongest claim to the Trump-aligned voters who now dominate the party. He has national visibility, a strong ideological profile, and enough time to build a campaign organisation if he chooses to run. However I think his star has wained a bit this year and his proximity to the likes of Tucker Carlson has done him few favours. For obvious reasons (!) I like the idea of President Vance but I am aware of what might be seen as his international isolationist tendency. Of course some may see that as a strength!
Marco Rubio is the most obvious alternative. His recent rise in popular appeals reflects a perception that he could bridge the GOP’s populist and establishment wings. I believe he has grown massively in confidence and is proving an adept media performer with all the Trumpian instincts! In a party that often wants both loyalty and competence, that balance could make him especially dangerous if Vance stumbles.
Of course Ron DeSantis still belongs in the conversation, but he no longer looks like the inevitable future of the party. Other names — including Donald Trump Jr., Ted Cruz, and Vivek Ramaswamy — may generate enthusiasm from factions inside the GOP, yet none currently shows Vance or Rubio’s breadth of support.
The biggest unknown is timing. By 2028, the field will be shaped by the economy, foreign policy, and the political aftermath of Trump’s second term. For now, Vance is the man to beat, Rubio is the strongest competitor, and the rest of the field is fighting for space behind them.
Where once I fervently wished for a Vance Presidency, I now think I would be equally happy with a Rubio Presidency!
How about you?
