David Vance SubstackRead More
I suppose you could call it asymmetric warfare.
The US has the most powerful military machine in the world, the Islamic Republic Iran has the Strait of Hormuz. For the past six weeks, the US has absolutely pounded the Mullah’s regime, causing enormous damage. Day One saw the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meet his end and it’s been a one way street when it came to military power.
However, it would disingenuous if we did not accept that the Mullah regime could pressurise the US via one little word – Oil. Closing the international waterway that is the Strait of Hormuz caused global energy prices to soar. As a direct consequence of this act, all of our economies have been damaged. Showing the recklessness of a desperate regime, the Iranians targeted pretty much all the Gulf Nations with missiles and drones. This was aimed at trying to bring indirect pressure on the USA. I don’t think that particular strategy worked, in fact it has backfired as the Gulf Nations are now more hawkish AGAINST Iran. But Oil Blackmail has worked to a significant degree.
As part of fragile looking Ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened to traffic. This is presented by Trump as a win. But it’s not a win. The Straits were open BEFORE all this kicked off. Now they are temporarily opened by the will of Iran and thus there is an acceptance that Iran controls what were international waters. This is a catastrophic development as it means that whoever controls Tehran can turn on or off global energy. That gives enormous power to the regime way and beyond its military capability. What has been the win for the US?
Trump claims regime change has taken place. It hasn’t and 90 million Iranians know this. Here is the evidence for what I say.
The ONLY real difference is that Khamenei is dead and his son (in a coma) has taken his place. It’s vaguely possible that the regime is slightly less demented without the Khamenei presence but even that is a wish, not a guarantee.
So as someone who wanted freedom for 90 million Iranians, it looks like I am going to be disappointed! That pales into insignificance compared to what they feel. They thought Trump would bring about real regime, allows the late Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, to be an interim leader of a new pluralist western facing Iran. I don’t believe this will happen and I feel bad for them.
