David Vance SubstackRead More
Listening to President Trump, it seems that he may well pull the trigger and pull the USA out of NATO. I wouldn’t blame him for one moment but I thought it might be interesting to consider what would then happen!
Under Article 13 of the NATO treaty, Trump must notify NATO of his intent, triggering a one-year countdown to departure. There are no votes or approvals required from other members. Congress could attempt to block it legislatively, but executive power would most likely prevail. So this is not an idle threat, it’s real. Trump can do this if he wants.
The immediate fallout hits NATO hardest. The alliance would shed roughly 80% of its military muscle, including the US nuclear deterrent that shields Europe from Russian aggression. Without 100,000+ American troops, bases, and intelligence, countries like Poland and the Baltics become more vulnerable to incursion.
Europe would scramble to try and cover: France and the UK’s arsenals can’t match Russia’s, forcing unprecedented defence budgets (many only nearing 2% GDP targets) and possible fragmentation into sub-alliances. Given the parlous state of many European counties, the surge in GDP on defence spending would cause massive economic damage, welfare cuts and stock market crashes.
There is, of course, a cost to the US as well. Withdrawing forfeits key bases in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, damaging power projection. Arms sales to allies—billions in revenue and jobs—evaporate, and global influence erodes as partners court Russia or China. However there is nothing to say that the US could not create a “new” NATO which would constitute actually allies such as the UAE and Israel.
A USA exit of NATO dismantles post-WWII security architecture BUT the European countries that treat the US so badly cannot expect things to carry on regardless.
Allies that turn away in your hour of need are not allies but parasites that shelter under American might. I say bring it on.
